~~NOTOC~~ | {{ :likelihood_13.png?nolink&170 |Superfície de Verossimilhança}} | BIE 5781 Modelagem Estatística para Ecologia e Recursos Naturais
LEITURAS | Estes são os textos que discutiremos durante a disciplina. As leituras principais são artigos e partes de livros escolhidos por apresentarem de maneira mais simples e operacional os conceitos básicos, **de leitura obrigatória**. As leituras complementares são indicações para os que quiserem se avançar um pouco mais, de leitura opcional. Após a disciplina, você poderá aprofundar-se e compreender a teoria subjacente se estudar a literatura essencial, indicada na [[:start&#bibliografia|bibliografia básica]]. ==== Nota ==== A [[http://www.usp.br/leginf/resol/r5213m.htm|Resolução 5213]] da Reitoria da USP permite que professores disponibilizem artigos e partes de livros adotados para uso estrito nas atividades de sua disciplina, apenas pelos alunos regularmente inscritos nela. ==== Modelos em Ecologia e Recursos Florestais ==== === Principais === * Hilborn, R. & Mangel, M. (1997). The Ecological Detective – Confronting Models with Data. Princeton, Princeton University Press. * {{:leituras:hilborn_chap1.pdf|Capítulo 1: An Ecological Scenario and the Tools of the Ecological Detective.}} * Johnson, J. B. & Omland, K. S. (2004). Model selection in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19:101-108 {{:leituras:johnson_y_omland_2004_model_selection_in_ecology_and_evolution.pdf|pdf}} === Complementar === * Hilborn, R. & Mangel, M. (1997). The Ecological Detective – Confronting Models with Data. Princeton, Princeton University Press. * {{:leituras:hilborn_chap2.pdf|Capítulo 2: Alternative Views of the Scientific Method and Modeling.}} ==== 1. Distribuições Discretas ==== === Principal === * Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling. Capítulo 4, itens 4.4, e 4.5.1 de:[[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]] === Complementares === * Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling. Capítulo 4, itens 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 de:[[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]] * Random variables and probability distributions. Cap.2 de Gotelli, N.J. & Ellison, A.M. 2004. A primer of ecological statistics. Sinauer. * Otto, S. P. & Day, T. (2007). A biologist's guide to mathematical modelling in ecology and evolution. Princenton, Princenton University Press. * {{:leituras:otto_primer_probability_theory.pdf|Capítulo 3: Probability Theory}} ==== 2. Distribuições Contínuas ==== === Principal === * Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling. Capítulo 4, item 4.5.2 de:[[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]] === Complementar === * Randon variables and probability distributions. Cap.2 de Gotelli, N.J. & Ellison, A.M. 2004. A primer of ecological statistics. Sinauer. * Otto, S. P. & Day, T. (2007). A biologist's guide to mathematical modelling in ecology and evolution. Princenton, Princenton University Press. * {{:leituras:otto_primer_probability_theory.pdf|Capítulo 3: Probability Theory}} ==== 3. Função de Verossimilhança ==== === Principal === * {{:03-funcao-veros:verossim.pdf|Batista, J.L.F. 2009 Verossimilhança e Máxima Verossimilhança.}} === Complementar === * {{:leituras:jlfb-tese-livre-docencia.pdf|Batista, J.L.F. 2014 Biometria Florestal segundo o Axioma da Verossimilhança.}} ESALQ-USP, Tese de Livre Docência, 391p. * Likelihood and all that. capítulo 6 de:[[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]] * The Concept of Likelihood , cap.2 de: [[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:edwards_likelihood.djvu|Edwards, A.W.F., 1992 Likelihood. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.]] * Hobbs, N.T. & Hilborn, R. (2006). Alternatives to statistical hypothesis testing in ecology: A guide to self-teaching. Ecological Applications: 16(1): 5-19. * {{:leituras:hobbs_hilborn_2006_alternatives_to_test_hypotheses_in_ecology.pdf|artigo}} * [[http://www.esapubs.org/archive/appl/A016/001/appendix-A.htm|Apêndice A]] ==== 4. Modelos c/ Parâmetros Constantes ==== === Principal === * Likelihood and All That, seções 6.1 a 6.2.1.2 do Capítulo 6 de: [[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]] === Complementar === * Anderson, D. R. (2008). Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. New York, Springer. * {{:leituras:anderson_cap2.pdf|cap.2}} * {{:leituras:anderson_cap3.pdf|cap.3}} ==== 5. Modelos Binomial e Poisson ==== === Principais === * [[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]]: * Cap.6 - Likelihood and all that, seção 6.3.1 * Cap.9 - Standard Statistics Revisited, seção 9.4 === Complementares === * Crawley, M.J. 2007. The R Book. New York, Wiley. * {{:leituras:crawley_cap13.pdf|cap.13 - Generalized Linear Models}} * {{:leituras:crawley_cap14.pdf|cap.14 - Count Data}} * {{:leituras:crawley_cap16.pdf|cap.16 - Proportion Data}} ==== 6. Modelos Gaussianos ==== === Principal === * Standard Statistics Revisited, seções 9.1 a 9.3, capítulo 9 de:[[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]] === Complementar === * Likelihood and least squares theory. Seção 1.2.2 do Cap.1 de [[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:burnham_anderson2002.pdf|Burnham, K. P., & Anderson, D. R. (2002). Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical-Theoretic Approach, 2nd ed. New York, Springer-Verlag]]. ==== 7. Seleção de Modelos ==== === Principal === * Information and likelihood theory. Cap.2 de [[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:burnham_anderson2002.pdf|Burnham, K. P., & Anderson, D. R. (2002). Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical-Theoretic Approach, 2nd ed. New York, Springer-Verlag]]. ===Complementares=== * {{:leituras:burnham-anderson-2001.pdf|Burnham, K.P.; Anderson, D.R. 2001 Kullback-Leibler information as a basis for strong inference in ecological studies. Wildlife Research, v.28, p.111-119.}} ==== 8. Inferência por Verossimilhança ==== === Principais === * Royall, R. M. (2007) The likelihood paradigm for statistical evidence. **In:** The nature of scientific evidence (eds. ML Taper and SR Lele), University of Chicago Press, pp 119–152. {{:leituras:the_likelihood_paradigm_for_statistical_evidence.pdf|pdf}} * Lewin-Koh N., Taper, M. L. & Lele, S. R. (2004). A brief tour of statistical concepts. **In:** The nature of scientific evidence (eds. ML Taper and SR Lele), University of Chicago Press, pp 3 -16. {{:leituras:a_brief_tour_of_statistical_concepts.pdf|pdf}}. === Complementares === * Sober, E. 2008. Evidence and Evolution: the logic behind the science. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. {{:leituras:sober_evidence_and_evolution_chap1.pdf|cap.1 - Evidence}}. * {{:leituras:edwards-1999.pdf|"Likelihood"}}: Uma palestra de A. W. F. Edwards. * Berger, J.O. & Wolpert, R.L. 1984. [[http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.lnms/1215466210|The likelihood principle.]]Lecture Notes--IMS Monograph Series, Volume 6. ==== 9. Fundamentos de Otimização ==== === Principal === * **Optimization and All That**. Capítulo 7 de:[[http://ecologia.ib.usp.br/bie5782/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=bie5782:pdfs:bolker2008.pdf|Bolker, B.M. 2008 Ecological Models and Data in R Princeton: Princeton University Press.]]